October 28, 2014
October 27, 2014
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October 23, 2014
Caterpillar rallied after reporting a quarterly profit that soared past estimates; 3M (MMM) jumped after the diversified manufacturer posted higher quarterly profit, and General Motors (GM) also tallied a better-than-expected profit in the third quarter.
“It’s earnings. When we started the day the Dow was still down on the year, then you saw Caterpillar and GM come out with good news,” said Chris Gaffney, senior market strategist, Everbank Wealth Management, referring to the Dow’s return to the black for 2014.
The volatility of last week could be interpreted as a sign that investors are worried about whether the U.S. economy can stand on its own, once the Federal Reserve pulls the plug on bond purchases, otherwise known as quantitative easing, said Gaffney. “This week, these earnings show perhaps it will.”
On Thursday, the CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX), a measure of investor uncertainty, fell nearly 11 percent to 15.99.
Thursday’s economic reports had the four-week average of Americans filing for jobless benefits dropping to a 14-year low.
The Conference Board’s index of leading indicators for September increased 0.8 percent.
Surveys had euro-area businesses performing far better than expected in October, along with a slight expansion in China’s manufacturing sector.
Rising as much as 277 points, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow Jones Global Indexes: .DJI) was lately up 274.05 points, or 1.7 percent, to 16,735.37, with 3M, Caterpillar and oil-producerChevron (CVX) leading blue-chip gains that extended to 26 of 30 components.
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) advanced 30.24 points, or 1.6 percent, to 1,957.35, with energy and industrials leading gains among its 10 main sectors and telecommunications the sole laggard.
The Nasdaq (^IXIC).rallied 78.58 points, or 1.8 percent, to 4,461.47.
For every share falling, roughly six gained on the New York Stock Exchange, where 228 million shares traded by 11:15 a.m. Eastern. Composite volume neared 1.2 billion.
The 10-year Treasury note (U.S.:US10Y) yield, used in determining rates on mortgages and other consumer loans, jumped 5 basis points to 2.272 percent.
The U.S. dollar (Exchange:.DXY) edged higher against the currencies of major U.S. trading partners and dollar-denominated commodities were mixed.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, December gold futures (CEC:Commodities Exchange Centre: @GC14Z) fell $18.00, or 1.5 percent, to $1,227.50 an ounce, and crude-oil futures (New York Mercantile Exchange: @CL14Z) for December rose $1.60, or 1.7 percent, to $82.12 a barrel.
On Wednesday, U.S. stocks turned lower, following the S&P 500’s biggest jump in a year, as investors considered the fatal shooting of a soldier in Ottawa, reports of gunfire in the halls of Canada’s Parliament and oil falling to a more-than two-year low.
Coming Up This Week:
Earnings: Bristol-Myers Squibb, Colgate-Palmolive, Ford, UPS, Procter and Gamble, Nasdaq, Delphi Automotive, State Street, Ericsson, Shire
10:00 a.m.: New home sales
More From CNBC.com:
October 17, 2014
Markets ended Friday with strong gains following a week of turmoil. Investors saw a years worth of profit disappear in a few short days, only to see it stabilize on Thursday and regain slightly at the weeks end. Yahoo Finance editor-in-chief sat down with Yahoo’s own Jeff Macke and Michael Santoli as well as Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi and Westwood Capital managing partner Dan Alpert to sort through the wreckage of the week and look ahead towards next week.
Apple (AAPL) will report earnings on Monday, October 20th at 2:00pm. Yahoo Finance senior columnist Michael Santoli expects them to come in at about $1.30 per share, about a 10% gain year-over-year. “They’ve have three months worth of iPhone 6 sales domestically here and China iPhone 6 sales start in China on October 17th. That means they’re going to be able to characterize how the sales went and I do think it’s going to be about looking forward to the December quarter and their sales expectations for the holiday season,” says Santoli.
Don’t call it a Comeback
Last week Yahoo Finance investing host Jeff Macke called that the market would fall lower, a call that turned out to accurate. Now he’s expecting a “Bullard bounce,” based on James Bullard, St. Louis Fed head, saying that the Fed should consider a delay in ending its quantitative easing program.
“Strong rally’s have been launched on less substance in the past,” says Macke. “This is a market where you can kind of put all of the economic news in the back because we’re clearly emotion based right now.”
CPI and Inflation
September CPI data is due out on Wednesday October 22nd at 8:30am. “The big story in the world is global disinflation and deflation,” says Westwood Capital’s Dan Alpert. “The question is what is the U.S. reaction to that?”
In 2013, says Alpert, housing drove almost all of core inflation but that’s been stripped out. “Now that we’ve leveled the wings on the plane the question is whether it’s really flying or are we going to fall into the same deflationary trap that Europe is?”
Mark Zandi of Moody’s analytics is keeping his eyes on consumer confidence in order to truly gage the impact the markets will have on the real economy. He also believes that falling gas prices will help confidence, “it looks like gasoline is going to go below $3 per gallon and that historically has been a real add to confidence,” he says. Still, he’s quick to point out that stock prices are down and Ebola and overseas turmoil make consumer confidence tricky.
October 15, 2014
As we all know the rich get richer and the poor gets poorer in America. That’s the way it seems like it has been for a long time. And the trend seems to be continuing. Although rich people took a hit in the financial crisis, the stock market has recovered strongly. Income inequality has been on the rise since the late 1970s, but the economic and financial crisis of 2008 instigated an unemployment epidemic that dramatically compounded this problem in the United States and catapulted the issue to the center of debate. There is wide agreement across the political spectrum that high inequality is contributing to undesirable circumstances such as stagnant household income, rising poverty rates, and increased borrowing and debt, though there is much less agreement on remedies. A bedrock American principle is the idea that all individuals should have the opportunity to succeed on the basis of their own effort, skill, and ingenuity. —Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/new-charts-about-inequality-2011-11?op=1#ixzz3GCxAbb8G But still once again the rich are getting richer as the poor get poorer in America. But Main Street has not: Median household income has fallen 10% since the beginning of the recession and unemployment has increased by nearly 5 percentage points. The Populist movements among Democrats and Republicans have finally put this issue in the spotlight. If you haven’t seen any charts about inequality, then prepare to have your mind blown. Here are some charts about the facts of inequality in America from 2011 and that trend has continued in 2014. Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/new-charts-about-inequality-2011-11?op=1#ixzz3GCyHl5Zx Inequality in America provides a snapshot of the issues posed by the growing concentrations of income, focusing on the United States but drawing on international comparisons to help set the context. Here is the URL link http://www.amazon.com/Inequality-America-Trends-International-Perspectives/dp/0815724217/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1413368231&sr=8-2&keywords=inequality+in+america of a book about inequality in America that’s featured on Amazon written by Un Dadush and Kemal Dervis. The authors examine the economic, technological, and political drivers of inequality and identify worrying trends associated with its rise. They demonstrate how specific factors have exacerbated income inequality, including technological change, international trade, changes in labor market participation, and the increasing role of the financial sector. Their clear and concise exposition makes the issues surrounding income distribution accessible to a wider public. As they write in the conclusion: “We have argued that tackling the worst effects of inequality and re-establishing a measure of equal opportunity requires increased investment in crucial public goods: first, education; second, a more progressive and simplified tax system; and third, increased international cooperation to avoid a race to the bottom. Education, tax, and other such policies are pursued by other highperforming advanced countries and can be shaped for the United States in a way that is fully consistent with an efficient and competitive American economy.” There has been inequality in America for a long time. And there is an inequality in wealth in America also. Check out this video below. Wealth Inequality in America
October 15, 2014
Running a household is no small feat. By the time school, extra-curricular activities, social calendars, work events, and travel schedules are coordinated parents can feel overwhelmed only to realize that they now need to synchronize all of this into their devices to make sure no child is left behind on the soccer field! If on top of all that there is an extended network of support such as grandparents, tutors or nannies, parents can find themselves making multiple copies of calendars and updating them constantly.
Developed by two successful professionals who became those mommies that are constantly juggling household activities, Hapimomi is an incredible app that allows parents and their network to seamlessly coordinate the family’s needs. Hapimomi has six basic features that will make all the difference in the world. A social wall to share messages with the family, as well as a calendar to remind users of important appointments and a to-do list function is only the beginning. Hapimomi also features a diary where family members can store their pictures and memories and the option to have a shared contact list. This feature allows numbers for doctors, baby-sitters, teachers and neighbors to be within reach to the whole family. Last, it also helps household members develop a shopping list that can be seen by all members. How exciting would it be to send hubby to the store for a few things and get exactly what you wanted! You can sort the shopping list by store and item, making it easy for everyone involved. All members can add to the list and even check off items as they are no longer needed.
The best part about Hapimomi is that is free and easy to download from itunes. All you need is your email and a password and to add your family members so they can also join in your family group. You can keep information private or share it with all or selected members of your family.
If you are a busy parent, Hapimomi’s features and accessibility will make it become your favorite app in no time at all!
October 11, 2014
Car maintenance is a difficult and time-consuming job, regardless of your vehicle’s condition. It doesn’t matter if we are talking about complicated car repair jobs, or simpler tasks such as scraping the ice off your windshield during the colder expensive at all, and it will do much more than just keep ice off your windshield. Using this product will alsomonths. If you are a driver, then you’ve probably performed this task numerous times, because your windshield gets easily covered by a layer of ice when the temperatures outside drop below zero. If you country has a colder climate, then we are absolutely sure that the process of scraping ice off your windshield has become very tedious, but don’t despair, because there is a quick and easy solution to your problems – the IceScreen Magnetic Ice Shield. This great new item isn’t make driving during the cold months much safer tasks, because you won’t have absolutely any visibility issues due to the complete lack of ice on your windshield.
So what makes the IceScreen Magnetic Ice Shield so special? This product is fairly new, but it is already being used by thousands of drivers who live in countries that are known for their harsh winter months, and according to the latest sales figures it is quickly gaining popularity across the entire world. Scraping the ice off your windshield can often take up to 10-20 minutes, and even more if you don’t have the right equipment. In the meantime mounting the IceScreen Magnetic Ice Shield takes just 1-2 minutes, and you won’t notice any ice on your windshield even if you leave your car out in the cold for days. The product is so durable that it can be used for years, and thanks to the handy self-storage bag you get. It will take minimum space while you keep it unmounted in your car. The shield features a double water proof design that will prevent water from staying on your windshield long enough for it to freeze. The mounting technique is incredibly simple& effective, so you will be able to easily mount & unmount the IceScreen Magnetic Ice Shield in a matter of minutes. The product’s designers have also come with up a unique security pocket that will help the IceScreen Magnetic Ice Shield to endure strong winds, as well as protect it from thieves.
Did we mention that the shield features two sides? The more unique one will protect your windshield from ice & frost, but if you turn the shield you’ll find a reflective coating that will keep the sun away from the interior of your car. This way you won’t risk your dashboard, steering wheel and front seats’ condition during the hot summer months. The mounting mechanism consists of 4 to 7 magnetic pockets, as well as two flaps which are secured by your car’s doors, so you can rest assured that your IceScreen Magnetic Ice Shield won’t disappear during a windy night.
And if you are worried about your car’s aesthetics, then you’ll be pleased to know that the IceScreen Magnetic Ice Shield comes in several color schemes that will match your vehicle’s style & maintain its good visual appearance. You can also get a custom logo or text printed on your shield for some extra money, so don’t hesitate to visit the official website if you’d like to see all the customization options. The affordable price & 5-year warranty are other two things that we think turn this product in one of the best and most helpful car accessories many drivers have seen in years.
October 9, 2014
It’s not your imagination: the stock market has gone a little bonkers lately. This week alone the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) plummeted 272 points on Tuesday, rocketed back 274 points Wednesday and sank more than 330 points today. October has already recorded five days where stocks moved more than 1%. That’s as many 1% moves as we saw in the prior five months combined.
So why are stocks so crazy? There’s no set answer but here are three of the most obvious explanations making the rounds on Wall Street.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average has had a very volatile week
It’s OctoberI know it sounds crazy but October is almost by tradition the most volatile month of the year. Whether it’s because of the upcoming holidays, the end of the fiscal year for mutual funds or because we hold elections every other November, October sees far and away the most 1% moves of any month. Remarkably since 1970 nearly one third of every trading day in October has seen the price of stocks change by 1% or more. It’s also worth noting that historically bad days like the 1929 crash and 1987’s Black Monday crash both took place in October.
The world is always crazy but right now things seem to be rockier than normal. Government officials in Europe are arguing over the best way to ward off an impending recession, growth is slowing to a relative crawl in China and Japan is tipping into a recession. That’s never good for companies driven by exports like General Motors (GM) or McDonalds (MCD).
For their part the Federal Reserve acknowledged these global concerns yesterday and suggested they would be very cautious about raising interest rates because of such worries. That sentiment sent stocks surging, just the latest bit of evidence that investors pay very close attention to every word uttered by the Federal Reserve.
October is traditionally a very volatile month for markets and stocks are behaving accordingly so far this mon …
Bad news outbreakIt’s not just overseas. The Ebola outbreak has some investors worried that the U.S. economy, which hasn’t been great to begin with, could freeze. Despite good headline data on employment many economists point out that wage growth in the U.S. has been almost non-existent. The fear may be overblown but this time of year traders tend to sell first and ask questions later.
So what should you do? Probably nothing. If you’re like most investors you’re not looking at your portfolio more than once a month unless or until you see bold headlines about stocks plunging. That can make the prospect of opening up those statements pretty daunting.
The truth is trying to time the market is always a sucker’s game and that’s especially true during volatile times. Days like this aren’t a good time to radically change your long-term strategy.
Professional traders would love to see you panic into dumping some quality blue chips. Don’t be that person. Take a long-term view and if you’re in doubt make an appointment to meet with your financial planner.
October 8, 2014
But with interest rates expected to start rising soon, the good news is only temporary.
The level of government overspending-usually referred to as the budget deficit-fell by nearly a third during the fiscal year that ended last month, mostly because revenues grew a lot faster than spending, according to a Congressional Budget Office report on Wednesday.
The Treasury collected a little over $3 trillion-nearly 9 percent more than it did a year ago-while spending rose just 1.4 percent to $3.5 trillion, according to the CBO.
That shrank the deficit to $486 billion for the latest year-about $195 billion less than the budget gap in fiscal 2013.
Higher discretionary spending-up $44 billion-was fueled largely by the cost of expanding health-care coverage. And the total paid out in Social Security checks was $37 billion more than last year. Those spending increases were offset by a $30 billion cut in spending by the Defense Department and a $24 billion drop in jobless benefits.
The improved job market also helped the government collect more money than expected. That’s because the expanding pool of jobs boosted overall wages, generating more tax revenue for the government.
“Growth in wages and salaries explains most of the increase in withheld receipts, but almost one-third of it stemmed from changes in law,” the CBO said, citing an increase in payroll tax rates that pushed up withholding.
Higher corporate profits also boosted corporate taxes up $48 billion. The Federal Reserve’s massive bond buying also generating a pile of interest on those bonds, which the Fed turns over to the Treasury. That added another $23 billion to Uncle Sam’s coffers-about 31 percent more than last year.
But interest rates are a double-edged sword for the government; the Treasury also has to pay interest to holders of nearly $18 billion in U.S. debt. Since the Fed began engineering super-low rates following the 2008 financial collapse, the Treasury has been getting a break on those payments. Think of it like a low teaser rate on your credit card.
Those low rates are expected to start rising next year, as the Federal Reserve phases out its bond buying program and allow rates to rise to more normal levels.
That’s one reason the recent progress on trimming the deficit will likely be short-lived, according to economists at Wells Fargo Securities.
They note that spending cuts, known as in Washington-speak as “budget sequestration” are set to expire in 2016. And rising interest rates will boost Treasury payments to holders of U.S. debt.
“Even with only modest increases in short-term interest rates, the year-over-year rise in interest expenses is already materializing,” the Wells Fargo economists noted.
They figure on rates rising a little higher than the CBO estimates, an note that Congress is likely to extend tax breaks that could also cut into revenues.
“Interest expenses will begin to play a much more dominate role in the federal budget,” they said. “All of these factors set up growing fiscal pressures in the later part of this decade.”
October 5, 2014
NEW YORK (Reuters) – A positive vibe returned to the U.S. stock market Friday, leaving some to wonder if, after two weeks of losses, the latest selloff scare was over. The best clues may come from what happens to low-quality corporate bonds.
The most recent decline in the S&P 500 marks the third time in six months that the market has looked wobbly and threatened a significant reversal. Each time, so far, it has bounced back quickly.
But what has some investors most worried this time around is the recent, notable underperformance in junk bonds in the past few months. In the past this has been a precursor to bearishness in the equity market.
High-yield corporate bond spreads , the premium investors get for purchasing low quality corporate debt as opposed to benchmark U.S. Treasuries , have been increasing steadily since late June. A widening spread means their performance is lagging higher-quality bonds.
The spread has since widened by more than 100 basis points, according to Bank of America-Merrill Lynch data. Previous spikes of this magnitude have preceded pullbacks in the S&P 500, and the greater the selloff in high-yield debt, the worse the outcome was for stocks.
“Spreads are widening and it’s certainly not a good time for equities. It doesn’t have to be a terrible time, but it’s telling you people are on the margin taking risk off,” said Paul Zemsky, chief investment officer of Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions at Voya Investment Management in New York.
He said that while reduced liquidity in the high-yield bond market could exaggerate the moves in spreads, the overall signal is of a marked shift in sentiment.
“I do think (the spread) has some information in terms of risk appetite and how people see economic growth,” Zemsky said.
High yield most recently started widening against Treasuries beginning on June 23, when the S&P 500 was around 1,960, with the peak set earlier this week at an increase of 116 basis points. The S&P closed the week at 1,967.90 while the yield spread tightened slightly to 107 basis points.
The last time such a shift in spreads started was in May 2013, and it preceded a near 6 percent fall in the S&P. Weakening in junk bonds in early 2012 also preceded an S&P downdraft between April and June 2012, when the S&P last flirted with a 10 percent drop.
However, the move may not yet signal a market correction. As has been the pattern in 2014, investors are content to move money between different stock market sectors rather than flee altogether. Small-cap shares entered a correction at one point this week and the S&P energy sector fell 13 percent from their 2014 peak, but investors piled into the healthcare sector (.SPXHC), which hit a lifetime record early last week.
In April 2011, high yield spreads began widening in a move that eventually reached 450 basis points. Stocks didn’t begin to correct until the spread had moved nearly 100 basis points, but eventually they sank nearly 20 percent.
“If you run a chart of junk spreads going back five years this move is tiny. We’ve seen much, much bigger moves in junk, and much bigger selloffs in junk in the last five years,” said Brian Reynolds, chief market strategist at Rosenblatt Securities in New York.
The current spike, he said, “did predict (the move) in stocks, it did follow through and we’re probably now reaching a climax of panic,” he said.
This is why the next move in credit spreads becomes key. Next week is relatively light for economic data. Investors haven’t run entirely from bond markets, but have shifted funds around. High yield funds saw an outflow of $2.3 billion in the most recent week to Oct. 1, the most since early August, according to Lipper, as they moved money into high-grade corporate debt.
The focus may shift again to escalating conflicts in the Middle East, the stubborn weakness of the European economy, or the outcome of Hong Kong pro-democracy protests that are challenging the authority of Beijing.
For Brian Jacobsen, chief portfolio strategist at Wells Fargo Funds Management in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin, the key lies in earnings reports, which begin in two weeks.
“If we don’t get earnings corroborating the (bearish) story being told by spreads, then I think we’ll see the spreads come in.”